Seismic Events as a factor for Plague:
Can historical data from the First Plague Pandemic
support a correlation between Epidemic Outbreaks and Seismic Events?
The history of plague is the history of humanity itself, of trade, connection and our inherent dependence on nature. Yersinia pestis, colloquially called plague, has accompanied humans for the last 10.000 years; emerging in large-scale pandemics on three occasions in 541CE, 1347 and 1855.
From its origin in the Central Asian Tian Shan Mountains, it spread via trade and animal vectors to other continents. Although the last plague pandemic was cut short by the emergence of modern medicine, recent outbreaks in Congo, Madagascar or Afghanistan still show its lasting potential for harm.
We know that plague reached Egypt from the East in 541 CE, spreading along trade routes to Constantinople, the capital of the Byzantine Empire, from where it spread and maintained its grip on the Mediterranean Basin until 750. During this 200-year period, plague circled the Mediterranean Basin in distinct waves.
Old empires fell and new ones rose; yet we still do not know what triggered these recurring plague outbreaks in different regions, at different times, under different conditions; coming back in 18 waves total; devastating Europe, the Middle East and Northern Africa.
My working hypothesis centers on an overlooked trigger: earthquakes. I propose that seismic events, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and landslides, create cascade effects that bring plague and humans into contact by physically disrupting plague foci — environments where plague bacteria circulate among rodents and their fleas — and forcing these plague-carrying rodents to flee closer to or into human settlements where damaged food stores attract them, collapsed buildings provide new nesting sites, and poor sanitary conditions help the disease spread to humans.
I've begun testing this hypothesis using the latest historical catalogues and found that between 558 and 713 CE, every catastrophic earthquake in the Mediterranean was followed by a plague outbreak within 3 to 6 months.
This animation (click to enlarge) shows preliminary results of my research:
notice the significant overlap between seismic events and plague outbreaks.
The goal of my PhD is the development of historical earthquake and plague
databases and analytical methods which will enable the evaluation of whether
earthquakes facilitate pandemic emergence. Understanding these triggers could be crucial for predicting and preventing future pandemics.